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| ACC: 'Industry Operations Have Largely Returned to Normal' |
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| News Source：http://www.jinchemical.com/
; SendDate：2010-6-23 15:58:54 |
The U.S. chemical industry is moving towards self-sustaining growth, driven by rising demand, business investment, and cost advantages, ACC said in its mid-year outlook. Chemicals output rose 6.6% year-on-year in May, and is forecast to rise 6.8% for all of 2010. The recovery has been, and will be, driven by basic chemicals, though some specialty segments are forecast to experience strong growth, as well. Rising demand in Asia and Latin America is expected to more than offset weakness in Europe, where sovereign debt crises have tempered recovery. As exports to emerging economies continue to grow the U.S. chemical industry could see its first trade surplus since 2001, ACC says.
End markets are expected to record strong growth this year. In some cases, however, such growth may not be enough to reach pre-recession activity levels. Light vehicle sales are forecast to total 11.7 million in 2010, up 15.5% from 2009, though still not enough to reach previous peaks. Housing starts, too, are expected to rise, to nearly 700,000 units, up from 558,000, though levels remain "historically low," ACC says. Iron and steel, computers, electronic components, and appliances are all forecast to experience double-digit growth this year, though the first three markets all saw double-digit declines in 2009.
Overall economic growth in the U.S. is forecast to total 3.8% this year. U.S. capacity utilization is expected to average 76.2% this year, and rise to pre-recession levels in 2011.
Globally, chemical output is expected to rise 7.2% this year, driven by recovery in Asian economies, after falling 3.6% in 2009. Global industrial production and GDP are forecast to rise 6.2% and 3.3%, respectively, after falling 2% and 6.4% in 2009.
Risks to the economic recovery remain, ACC says. The growth rate in the U.S. is expected to moderate in the second half of this year, and continue to do so in 2011 and 2012. The European debt crisis has sparked "concerns about a contagion spreading and a recessionary relapse," ACC notes. While European recovery is in danger, emerging markets, growth leaders from the start of the recovery, will continue to drive expansion. Issues in Europe "will have a nominal effect on U.S. economic activity, centered primarily in export demand," ACC says.
Beyond 2010, growth will continue, but at a more moderate pace, ACC says. Global chemical output is forecast to grow 5% in 2011, while U.S. chemical output is forecast to grow 3.7% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2012. End market growth, too, is expected to moderate in 2011 and 2012 for most sectors.
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